Happy Friday, dear reader. Especially so if you’ve been following the lay advice in this column over the last few days. Two more losers yesterday made it four from four for the week.

Better still, they were both odds on, at 8/11 and 4/7. Which means not too much risk on the liability side.

I use a couple of key criteria to find my lays, both of which are in the excellent (I’m beginning to like it more and more as time passes!) Racing Secrets [Exposed] guide that I reviewed here a couple of weeks ago.

You can read the review (if you haven’t already) here.

Regular readers will know that I was planning to start tracking another lay product, called the Bank Vault Report, today. Unfortunately, I don’t have time to set that up today, but will certainly be ready to share it with you on Monday.

Today’s action looks good. One of my alternative Ten To Follow lines up at Brighton. The horse is called Crossing The Line and is trained by one Sir Mark Prescott. Three runs over six furlongs last year, and here he is running over a mile and a quarter. Its a classic Prescott setup, and I’m expecting him to finish better than 8th for the first time in his career.

(You can read the full ten to follow piece on April 5th’s blog entry, or type in ‘ten to follow’ on the search page at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk

On the laying front, there are a few that look worthy of opposition, and I’ll mention just one here.

I’m going to oppose Speedy Senorita in the opener at Catterick. She has finished second on both her starts, and is trained by the in form Karl Burke with the excellent Frannie Norton doing the driving.

However, the form of her two runner up placings is moderate at best, and the Portman filly, Pretty Bonnie, arguably achieved more in her sole start to date. I do have a nagging doubt about this daughter of Kyllachy handling the very fast ground, and there is no such reservation about the Speedy Senorita, whose debut was here on firm turf.

Style Award was only beaten half a length by Burke’s filly when both were making their debuts here, and this young lady has arguably the more progression, given that she has only had the one run, to SS’s two runs.

I think Speedy Senorita can win this race, but I also believe that there are at least two with experience who can also win it. And that’s even before you consider the debutantes, some of whom are from good stables. At around even money, she is one to be against for me.

Best of Luck to you, and I’ll be back later with some Friday Fun…

Poor old Mighty Fine. No sooner had the trainer been interviewed by the loveable but inept tipster, Luke Harvey (excellent presenter, can’t pick his nose!), than “Sedgefield’s own Desert Orchid” was carried out by an early faller.

Tough luck on the old boy, but good luck for those of you who followed the lay selection yesterday.

The each way pick, Alfresco, travelled like a dream in a hot race run at a fast pace, but didn’t pick up when Jimmy Fortune started getting frantic.

Maybe its the hangover impairing my judgement, maybe I’m just getting cocky after a couple of successful lays, but I’ve rowed in with two very short ones to oppose today.

Purple Emperor is the first. With Frankie Dettori and Godolphin both in fine form, this beast is going to be sent off around 11/10 (currently trading at 6/5) on betfair. But the form of his debut is only above average, and I think there are horses represented much stronger maiden form (notably Walking Talking, who will improve for the step up in distance today).

For all that, the Emperor will be tough to beat granted improvement from his initial run, which seems highly likely. I just can’t help but take on skinny favourites!

My second choice is even shorter, currently trading around 4/7 on the exchange. Kavatcha is the mount of A P McCoy and is saddled by the Junior Pipe, who has made such an impressive start to his training career (could it ever have been another way?)

This is not a great race, despite there being four last time out winners and another three in the frame on their previous start. But, as a consequence, it is quite a competitive race.

The time of Kavatcha’s win was sloooooooooow, and this race is likely to be run at more of a clip. It could find a few of these out, who won in slooooooooow races themselves last time, and I’ll take a chance that Kavatcha is one of those that cannot handle the increased tempo.

Other news, and after a heated debate with my gym partner and betfair trader about the merits of Crouch and Beckham in the England camp, you can all rest assured that I’ve reminded him of their import in the game last night.

Regardless of the fact that we were ‘only’ playing Estonia, Croatia only put one past them, and England just had more life and desire with Beckham providing service, and Crouch terrifying small people in the penalty area.

There will of course be tougher games to come, but Beckham has made it very hard for the coach to turn his back on him now.

One other superstar returns to his metier today, with the long awaited (by me at least) seasonal debut of the one K Fallon, Esq.

He takes a couple of rides for Aidan O’Brien tonight at Tipperary (to where, incidentally, it is a very long way).

I have never made any secret of my love for this man’s talent, and the fact that he suffers the same ‘human’ malaises of so many only makes him more endearing to me.

I don’t condone drug use or race fixing, obviously, but I do know that if I have a bet on a flat race, I don’t want ANYBODY riding my horse more than K Fallon. He and A P McCoy are simply different gravy, in terms of picking a horse up and carrying it the last furlong to the finish line.

Welcome back, buddy!

Finally, just a quick note to let you know that from tomorrow, I will be reviewing another lay product on the market in real time here. The guide is called, ‘The Bank Vault Report’, and has had some promising reviews elsewhere.

We’ll be tracking its performance for a few days (possibly a week) on these pages, so watch this space from tomorrow.

Matt

p.s.Incidentally, if you haven’t already, you can still get your copy of Racing Secrets [Exposed] by clicking this sentence..

p.p.s. You can sign up for automatic notifications of new posts to this blog, by sending a blank email to nag@getresponse.com, or by clicking the link in this sentence. You can unsubscribe again at any time, should you so wish. But why would you?!

Good morning all, and welcome to Wednesday. By the time you leave work tonight, you’ll be nearer the end of the week than the beginning.

Your humble scribe is somewhat bleary-eyed as he writes this, after another bout of that pesky insomnia (been up since 4.30am!). I need to drink more - don’t seem to have problems sleeping then..!

Well, yesterday was a good day that could have been a great day. The back selection, Smile For Us, failed by only half a length to make us smile at 12/1. Still, a small each way wager saw its place part cashed around 3/1.

The winner, Vegas Boys, is due to go up in the weights by the best part of a stone in the next few days, but I wouldn’t bank on that stopping him. He wasn’t best drawn here, and took what can only be described as a circuitous route to get to the rail. When daylight came, he didn’t need a second invitation and catapulted clear to win cosily, and pretty much on the bridle. He’s got two entries on Friday (Goodwood and Brighton), so we might stake the chips (geddit, stake and chips? Oh, please yourself) on the Vegas Boys again.

The horse that beat him last time out, Osiris Way, is also one to watch for. He’s not currently entered up, but is on a hattrick himself and will take some catching.

The lay selection is still running… Newtonian was rightly nominated as a horse to struggle with a pedestrian gallop. And so it proved as the 5/2 joint favourite finished plum last, beaten 31 lengths! Cherry on the top was that I also mentioned, and backed, Mahmjra as the likely winner (took 4/1, returned 5/2).

So a good day indeed.

I have to say that whilst I wasn’t specifically following the Racing Secrets [Exposed] methodology, a couple of the system elements have found their way into my lay assessment process and I find them really useful.

The pick of these is a very easy way of establshing the relative ability of a horse, in order to determine whether to lay it or not. I can’t divulge this for obvious reasons, but suffice it to say that when you see it, its a ‘no brainer’.

To today, and first, an interesting point I noted from the Racing Post. Peter Chapple-Hyam is having an awesome campaign, spearheaded naturally by Authorized, his Derby winner.

But TrainerFlatStats punters were already expecting great things of ‘The Tubby One’, as he is flagged up as one of the ‘Six of the Best Trainers To Follow’ this season, specifically with his two year old colts outside of handicap company. The nursery handicaps have yet to start, so basically we’re just tracking his young boys.

To date, four have run, one twice. From those five starts, there have been three wins, and two placed efforts. Given that the winners were 5/1, 9/2 and 9/4, and the seconds were at 5/1 and 11/8, that’s pretty impressive.

The ‘Trainers to Follow’ is just one of four bonus guides that accompany TrainerFlatStats, all of which are designed to help you optimize your betting experience.

To Wednesday’s fare, and I like one in the 8.40 at Kempton. At face value, this looks a fiendishly difficult race. And it probably is. But the reason I like the race is because the market seems to have been framed around two horses, when there are any number in with a chance.

Favourite is likely to be Sir Mark Prescott’s improving colt, Tilapia. Although he’s won on this surface at Lingfield, his recent winning has been on the softer stuff at Southwell. He is in good heart but, off top weight, I reluctantly pass him over. (Regular readers will know how dangerous this is - simply following Prescott blindly in handicaps with runners at less than 14/1 would have earnt you a profit every year for the last five years!)

The other hype horse in the race, who I suspect will drift in the betting, is Marcus Tregoning’s Sea Land. He followed up a debut second at Lingfield, with a facile win over the same seven furlongs in weak maiden company. The ratings suggest he didn’t improve from the first run to the second (didn’t need to in fairness), and he’s been off the track for three months too. This is a warm race, and with the question marks I’d want around 7 or 8/1 before taking a chance with this one.

So where will the Bisogno shilling fall today?

I liked Pat Eddery as a jockey, and I’m beginning to like him as a trainer. He and Walter Swinburn have made promising starts to their respective training careers, albeit supported by some fairly wealthy owners, as well as canny employment of racing syndicates.

And its Eddery’s syndicate horse, Alfresco, who could see us dining out tonight. On first glance, form figures of 13-10-6-2-1-1-9-7 look a bit of a mixed bag. But if you concentrate only on the dirt numbers, this becomes a much more interesting and consistent 6-2-1-1. That quartet of runs was at Leafy (that’s Lingfield to you), and the surface here is pretty well aligned.

The one thing with this horse is he needs to be produced late, as he’s a bit of a dosser. Expect him to travel like a dream off what should be a pretty fast pace, before Jimmy Fortune (a good strong jockey) starts battering him in the last 330 yards.

I reckon he has a very solid each way chance, and I’ll be having a little tickle win and place.

For a lay, I’m not keen on Cedar Mountain in another hot race, but will let him go as a) he’s from John Gosden’s yard, who I always get wrong, and b) he’s a potential big improver.

Lord Deevert also looks pretty opposable at Lingfield in what is an appalling contest to start the card there. Gizmondo has the proverbial mountain to climb in the last as well, in my book at least.

But I’ll be ignoring all these, instead taking on the geriatric plodder, Mighty Fine. Although he’s on the hattrick and is an impressive six from twelve at Sedgefield, its a competitive seller (if that’s not an oxymoron!), and he’s giving half a stone plus all round, even allowing for his conditional jockey’s claim.

Finding one to beat him is tough, but of course I don’t need to, as I have fifteen running for me! At around 2/1, he’ll do for me as the one not to be on.

Good luck to you with your Wednesday wagers.
Matt
p.s. If you don’t already get notified when a new post appears on this blog, you can get automatic prompts by sending a blank email to nag@getresponse.com

After the fun in the sun of the Epsom Derby meeting, its now back to the bread and butter stuff until Royal Ascot (starts Tuesday 19th June).

For all that it is pretty uninspiring fare, there are still winners to be wagered and losers to be layed.

Lingfield host one of their few turf meetings today and, traditionally on faster ground, there is a slight bias towards high numbers on the sprint track.

So, I’ll take a look at the 3.45, an 18 runner handicap over the straight six furlongs, for my horse to back.

The obvious start point is Vegas Boys, who is in great form, and beat all bar the progressive Osiris Way last time. He should run a solid race, but is high enough in the weights (conceding all round here) and might not be too well boxed.

Joy And Pain has a lot going for him. He has won in big fields (including at this meeting last year on similar ground over 7 furlongs), and from trap 11 is not too far from the supposedly favoured high stalls. Dane O’Neill is a good man to have up top, so this one should be tough to beat. At 8/1 on betfair, he’s tempting.

But I’m going to take a punt (literally) on something at bigger odds. The nag that catches my eye is drawn hard against the rail in 18, so if the advantage is high, he has the best of it. Smile For Us likes to blaze a trail, so should be able to optimize his berth, and is relatively unexposed on turf, having done most of his running on the beach.

In only two runs on good to firm over six furlongs, Smile For Us has won (by five lengths!) and finished a close up 4th of 15 (beaten 1 3/4 lengths, only headed inside the final furlong). He is on the same handicap mark today as he was when he won so convincingly and, at 17/1 on betfair currently (over 3/1 for the place as well), he looks as good an option as any.

Trying to find one to beat today is quite tricky, for no better reason than I don’t like to lay horses at greater than 5/2. (The potential payout proffers disproportionate palpitations - try saying that when you’ve had a couple of scoops!).

So, the one I want to field against runs tonight at Southwell in the ‘lucky last’.
The horse in question is Newtonian, currently trading around 5/2 on the exchange.

With a win strike rate of two from seventeen, both wins coming over the slightly longer 1m4f trip here. He seems to relish a decent gallop, something which is far from guaranteed in this small field.

At eight years old, he’s hardly a progressive type and, in what could be a muddling affair, I reckon he’ll be well tapped for toe as they turn in.

Incidentally, when looking for horses who could beat Newtonian, I was interested in Mahmjra (around 9/2, two wins, two thirds from four starts over course and distance), and Musical Giant (21/1 and drifting, first start on AW, having cost 300,000 Guineas!!! He is by Giant’s Causeway, who is a son of the mightiest of all dirt sites, Storm Cat. Could be a massive improver for the change of surface. Or could run like an expensive dog…)

So there it is, today’s choices. These are not based on any system you might see elsewhere on the pages of Nag3, aside from my own reading of the races.

Welcome back to work, dear reader. For it is Monday again. To mark this most inauspicious and sobering of days, I thought I’d introduce a new ‘occasional’ post entitled, the Monday Musing.

This will normally be about something to avoid in the wonderful worlds of racing, football and betting, but I reserve the right to wander off topic from time to time, for no better reason than to vent my spleen about something which may be bugging me at the moment when digit touches keyboard.

To start things off on the right note, I will offer up a racing related Monday Musing.

It can be summed up as, “If you bet in-running on horse racing, you are almost certain to lose”.

Let me explain…

I have a good friend (and gym partner) who for some time now has been trading on betfair. But his trading style differs from the average arbritrage player (for those who don’t know, arbitrage is about backing a horse at a bigger price then laying it at shorter odds to guarantee a profit if it wins, and no down side if it doesn’t).

Sure my nameless pal engages in arb’s for bread and butter. But his jam comes from somewhere else.

Did you know that there is anything from 1.5 seconds and five seconds time lag between the live racing and ‘live’ racing pictures on the tv? (This is much more pronounced on the satellite channels, so if you typically watch only BBC / C4 racing, then you are less likely to be susceptible).

The delay between reality and the virtual reality of the TV pictures is enough for big stacks of cash to be won or lost.

Let me give you an example: the favourite at Uttoxeter is clear approaching the last, and there is £3000 to be layed at 1.07 on betfair. The favourite makes his first blunder all the way round the track, and comes down.

My friend, who works with a colleague at the track, lays the full £3000 with no liability. The horse is on the floor and cannot win. He knew about the stricken jolly a good three seconds before the unwitting ‘money buyer’ with a big burning hole in his pocket, who was lounging at home on his (soon to be repossessed) couch.

Another example is photo finishes. When the result is called on course, the savvy traders can back the horse that wins or lay the runner up, certain that they can’t be beaten.

There are two exceptions to this case however. First, judges sometimes mistakenly call the wrong horse in the photo (especially if their name is Jane ‘Inept’ Stickles). Secondly, and more importantly, Betfair now send a man to the track to suspend betting as soon as he hears, “And here is the result of the photograph”.

The lesson here is clear and stark: unless you’re working in partnership with someone at the track, you are very likely to be donating your money to very shrewd traders if you bet in running.

You have been warned…

A footnote on the Derby. Great to see Frankie finally win, blah blah blah. Actually I don’t much care about big name jocks winning big races. I’d have been happier if Frannie Norton or Royston (’The Boyston’) Ffffffffrench had won.

Nevertheless, I like Frankie and you have to go a long way to find a jockey riding better for the last couple of seasons.

Rergarding the horse, Authorized, well I questioned his ability to win the race, based on the merit of his trial which proved nothing. As it turned out, we’ve rarely seen a more - forgive me - authoritative display. I’m not at all certain about the quality of the nags in behind, but the time was fast (4.5 seconds, or 22 lengths (!) quicker than the class 2 handicap that followed over the same trip).

Authorized looks well clear of his peers and may give the older generation something to think about in the big all age middle distance contests later in the season.

Which leads me to a quick final moan (for today at least): why is it that, by the 2nd day of June, barely two months into the turf flat season, we have already had four of the five Classics, with only the much maligned and lampooned (unfairly, in my opinion) St Leger to come?

Surely the Guineas races should be run at Royal Ascot, and the Derby and Oaks at somewhere like Glorious Goodwood or York. That would properly reflect a three year old animal maturing into his races, and give punters a fighting chance of finding the winner based on form (though of course Authorized was the form pick in the Derby).

I know this breaks from tradition etc, and even more so, I know it will NEVER happen. But am I the only one who thinks that there’s a degree of preposterosity (made up word) about the main Classics being done and dusted before many of the best horses who will run this season are even out doing light canters?

Discuss…!

Pip pip!
Matt

After the emotion of HRH Cecil (I know it should be HRA, but for one day only I’m elevating him to royal status) in the Oaks yesterday, its time for the more earthly colts’ contest.

The card is highly competitive, as you’d expect, and it kicks off with a ten furlong handicap, contested by fourteen runners.

An interesting point from the first day is that of the five races run over ten furlongs or less, the winners were drawn: 6, 4, 1, 2, 1

So I’ll be looking for low drawn horses on a track that traditionally favours this anyway.

In the 2.00, most of the key protagonists in the market are poorly drawn, which leaves us with just the Hannon pair, Duke of Tuscany and Fever, who bookend the weights.

The Duke, who is topweight and a habitual front runner, will have to be exceptionally tough to lug the weight from pole position, but may just do that. He’s progressive and only has 3/4 of a length to find with Zaham from their running last time out.

At the foot of the weights, Fever is also progressive, and is on the hat-trick tomorrow, having won at Nottingham and Windsor over this trip, albeit in significantly lower grade. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if he proved equal to the upgrade.

The second race is the Woodcote, a six furlong dash for two year olds. Again, the draw is key. Mister Hardy is unbeaten in two starts to date, is well drawn and - as a son of Kyllachy - will have no problems with conditions underfoot. He’ll take some beating, but there are plenty of unexposed types here, and Bespoke Boy may just improve past him. A winner on his debut (the field strung out like something that’s been exceptionally well strung out… erm..), he has plenty of scope and is a sporting suggestion in an open contest.

Incidentally, there are four sons of Acclamation doing battle in the Woodcote, which may constitute some sort fo record.

A disappointing field of five for the Diomed Stakes (numerically at least), and Frankie will be odds on to double up on Godolphin’s Blue Ksar. But he’s no value to me. The horse looks to have been well placed to win three on the bounce, and has never won a Group race before. The prolific Welsh Emperor, on the other hand, has two Listed races, a Group Three and a Group Two to his name and, though arguably a little long in the tooth at eight years, he looks a much more appealing proposition.

If Ordnance Row takes his chance in the race after finishing third from an impossible draw today, he might follow the selection home.

At 3.30, we will be asked to find the winner of a nineteen runner sprint handicap, known as the Vodafone Dash. This is the fastest five furlongs in the country, and I think I may have heard somewhere, the fastest in the world.

Many of the usual suspects line up, and - to be honest - I don’t have the faintest clue which one will win. High numbers can be favoured here, so I’ll attempt to use that to inform my (uninformed) choice…

Green Manalishi has the most weight and the highest draw, the former implying he’s the best horse here.Just behind him in the weights is Bond City, a course and distance winner on good to soft for tomorrow’s pilot, Frankie Dettori. He’s drawn better than ok in 13, and we know he goes on the track and the ground. He’s in decent form, if a slightly disappointing run at York last time can be forgiven.

I’ll side with these against the field, but you pays your money and takes your choice here.

Before I give you my thoughts on the Derby, a quick word about the ‘new and improved’ Nag3 site. I’ve now got it pretty much up and running, and am interesting in your thoughts. I aim to make the site one of the best free horseracing resources on the net in due course, and your feedback is vital in that. Otherwise, you’ll just get what I think you want..!

Have a look at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk and please use the contact option to pass me your thoughts.

You’ll find free systems (all researched, not just gut feel or old wives’ tales), articles, a search facility so you can look for a particular subject in my blog archives, and of course some premium systems, which are performing well at the moment. I managed to lay Lady Sandicliffe (at odds on) and a couple of others at short prices today, and get them all beaten, using the Racing Secrets [Exposed] formula. The other system on those pages, TrainerFlatStats has had its last five qualifiers finish first or second, including a nice winner today at 4/1 (only runner).

You can find more info on all of the above by sniffing around the site. Enjoy!

Now back to the Derby…

Aidan O’Brien is going scattergun with no fewer than eight entrants. All are regally bred, but I think all are running more in hope than expectation of beating the likely odds on favourite, Authorized. Although the form shown to date by Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt appears to be the best, I reckon that the Irish raiders may just get their wish.

There are doubts in my mind about the merit of the form of his four length defeat of Raincoat. The only horse with good form in behind was Adagio, and he shaped like a blatant non-stayer, so I’m not convinced that we learnt anything more than he’s still alive that day. Indeed, Passage of Time showed in the Oaks that the favourites here have very different challenges to face than in their prep races.

Contrarily, a number of the Irish raiders have been battle hardened in top races.

One of these is Eagle Mountain, who finished fifth in the 2000 Guineas. There is a doubt about his stamina, as there is about many of this field, but if he stays he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame.

One who is almost certain to stay is the son of Kingmambo, Archipenko. He won the major Irish trial, the Derrinstown Stud Trial Stakes, a race won previously by High Chapparal, Galileo and Sinndar. I’m not suggesting that Archipenko is as good as those illustrious previous winners, but he’s clearly good and maybe very good. He looks the best each way option, and is strongly fancied to reach the frame.

Of the English trial winners, Admiralofthefleet, Soldier of Fortune, and Aqaleen beat little between them and I’d be surprised and a little disappointed if any of this trio was good enough to lift the Blue Riband.

One at a price who is very unexposed and bred to stay is Mahler. Another of the O’Brien Octet, he looks a touch of each way tickle value at 40/1.

Another race over the same trip follows, this time a handicap and there is one at the bottom of the weights who looks an absolute standout. Leslingtaylor was progressive last season on the flat and, since then, has added a big handicap hurdle to his name (the Swinton). He won’t want for fitness, comes from a savvy yard, and I reckon has a great chance of winning this en route to (slightly) better things.

Cape Secret may give him most to worry about.

If you’re not p155ed or potless by this point, there is another impenetrable sprint handicap to finish with. David Nicholls has won the race four out of the last five years, and five of the last ten, and he runs a quartet this time.

The best drawn of his is Indian Trail, but he’s done all his winning on good ground or faster. He also has three duck eggs next to his name this season. Nicholls’ other three are all drawn in the car park and it will be a shock if one can win.

I’m an occasional fan of going on the Beaver Patrol (can I say that?! Its my blog, I can say what I like!), and last year’s winner has struck lucky with the same trap five that he won from then. Coincidentally, he also wears the orange jacket of all good trap five hounds, and I expect him to make a bold bid to double up. The last five winners of the race were drawn 7, 2, 1, 3, 5, and the Beaver should not be inconvenienced by the ground (won mostly on good to firm, but also on good to soft).

For m
y final shocking pun in this installment, I take the Beaver to snatch victory…

Good luck to all.
Matt

Friday fun time again, and I’m celebrating after Our ‘Enry did the business in the Oaks today to record… wait for it… his TWENTY-FOURTH Classic winner. The man is absolute class, and was typically gracious in victory, handing credit to everyone except himself.

I might start a peerage for Sir Henry campaign - what do you think…?

Anyway, a bit of Friday fun for you, once again from the archives of youtube.com. You may have seen this, as its received an awful lot of press coverage. They have a combined age of over 3,000! I think this fantastic and I hope you like it too…

Derby preview later…

Matt

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to Epsom Friday. At the end of a short working week, what could possibly be better than taking Friday off and sloping down to the Downs for some filly watching? (I know, I know, having the whole week off could be better, but for the wicked - as you’re already aware - there is no rest!).

The good news is that the fillies will come fick and fast (apologies for blatant alliteration there) today as, not only is the Oaks the pinnacle of Classic-age lady races, but there is also a mile Group 3 event restricted to the fairer sex to start the card.

As if all that was not girlie action enough, for those prefer their females in biped form, it’s also Ladies’ Day today at the Surrey track. (Expect waaaaay too much focus on the girls, and not nearly enough on the top draw equine action if you’re watching on TV today).

Enough of the opening bluster, and onto the races:

I have to say that I have some reservations about the ground, which may render a number of these selections obsolete. Although gauging ground conditions is rarely a science, the forecast rain has yet to arrive at Epsom, and the track is one of the better draining courses in the country. So, I think its going to be important to review the times of the first two contests before being confident on the actual going.

The official going is currently soft, but I suspect it will not be that yielding underfoot. Having been at Sandown last night, where the going was reported as good to soft, but the race times were quick, despite the horses traversing the track in the home straight and therefore travelling extra distance (apparently in search of better ground).

So… if the time of the opening two races is quicker than around 12.8 seconds a furlong (that’s 1min 48.8 secs for both, as they are both over a mile and half a furlong), then its good ground or better. Markedly slower (i.e. 1:50.5 or slower) and it is genuinely soft. In between, its about good.

Its an inexact science, but it will help to gauge the ground. (Also check the previous winning form of the placed horses in the first two for an extra pointer).

The opener at 1.40 is tricky, with ten fillies and mares going to post. Regular readers will know that I find women to be unpredictable at the best of times, and especially when they have four legs and eat hay (as so many of mine seem to!). I very rarely take a short price on a filly, and will not be doing so in this race. So, while Nannina has the best form, she has yet to race this season (and indeed for eight months), and she may not act on soft turf, if that’s what it turns out to be.

Echelon is interesting and her trainer knows more than most about improving older horses, and is the most likely winner. However, I will take an each way chance on a horse who ran well in the 1000 Guineas and gets the weight for age allowances in this relatively early season race.

The horse in question is Puggy and, for small stakes, she may reward each way ticklers.

Next up is a handicap over the same trip, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this lower class race is run in a faster time than the opener. I am a big fan of following sires who have an influence for producing soft ground horses and Montjeu is the most obvious of these. So his able, though not brilliant, son Montpellier must be of interest in this race.

Although his overall race record is patchy, he has won on good to soft and won last time out. His trainer reckons he’s a bit of a dodge and, personally, I quite admire quirky animals (for obvious reasons, i.e. I am one!) He clearly has the talent, but whether he deigns to use it is another kettle of kippers entirely.

So I’ll take another in the race, just in case. I also love Inchinor’s in soft ground races, and almost put up Red River Rebel against the lay Medieval Maiden the other day (won at 25/1!).

Tucker’s been off for a while but will act on the ground, is fairly handicapped, and comes from the very shrewd stable of the ‘choirboy’ Walter Swinburn.

In the 2.45, although the human version is pretty slow, I reckon the equine John Terry has a great chance. Will act on whatever ground conditions are prevalent (his only win coming on soft), and he is pretty unexposed compared to others here. Has an able trainer, and with the benefit of a debut run this season under his belt, he’ll not want for fitness.

At the bottom of the card is a very interesting horse called Red Lancer. He’s finished fifth and sixth in this race in the past two years and has been plummeting down the handicap. Formerly very smart (he won the Chester Vase three years ago), he is clearly in regression now, but his handler - one Dandy Nicholls - loves to win here and this old boy may work your larynx if you invest in him.

The Coronation Cup is a belter: the best race on the card by far. Seven horses who between them have won eight Group 3’s, six Group 2’s, and five Group 1’s. A classy renewal indeed! My selection here is ground dependant, I’m afraid. I am a huge fan of Sixties Icon, and think he will win if the going is good or quicker. However, if its genuinely dead, I reckon the O’Brien pair, Septimus and Scorpion will find the mark.

Although Sixties Icon has won a St Leger (over a mile and three quarters), I just feel that Scorpion’s stamina will be tough to crack. He’s also a former St Leger winner, and on heavy ground to boot.

Septimus is a classy animal and will give both a run for their oats. The one I don’t like today, which probably means he’s going to win, is last year’s Derby winner, Sir Percy. I’m not sure that was the best of Derbys and he’s consistently fallen a little short in top races since. I’m happy to pass him over today.

Next up is the Oaks, and I dearly dearly dearly hope the main man completes his renaissance by bagging the winner, and maybe the second as well, in today’s ‘Totty Classic’.

I am of course referring to the incomparable ‘Sir’ Henry Cecil (I need to be allowed to remove the apostrophes soon, Your Maj!!!).

The man is a genius - no other word for it. Different gravy is another appropriate nomenclature for HRAC.

Quite simply, Passage of Time has by far the best form. If she’s fit enough (she’s had a persistent throat abscess all season), she’ll win. Not by far though, as she seems to doss in front, giving the impression that she’s all out. Make no mistake, this young lady is the real deal. I hope and expect her to win. She is a rare case when I’d invest in a short price priced filly, if I didn’t already have so much emotional investment in the success of Sir Henry.

The race for places is wide open, though one I’d oppose is Dalvina. The form of the race she won at Newmarket last time has taken more blows than Hugh Grant did from Divine Brown (allegedly).

I’d love Light Shift to make it a 1-2 for the indomitable Mr Cecil, and that may well happen. She’s progressive and has done nothing wrong in two starts to date this term, though of course this is a different examination entirely.

As we’ve mentioned in these pages before, John Oxx rarely comes over from Ireland for the craic (its better where he lives generally speaking). So his Four Sins, a daughter of dual-Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Sinndar for the same connections, will be expected to run with merit. Oxx does have reservations about the ground and its even possible that if its genuinely sodden out there, he’ll withdraw her. If she takes her chance however, she’ll make them go.

There are plenty of other unexposed types, but they all need to improve by a stone and more to beat Passage Of Time.

A couple of ridiculous rags who may run better than their odds suggest are Darrfonah and Sues Surprise. Both are bred to stay (where many are doubtful stayers), and both will act on any ground. Don’t be surprised if one of these two finishes in the frame.

Its downh
ill after that, with nothing much to catch this punter’s eye (or wallet). In a very trappy contest at 4.50 I’ll take the two outsiders each way against the field. That’s Heroes and Whazzis. But I take neither with any great conviction.

Finally, when the beer / champagne should have kicked in and made every man and woman (but hopefully not the children) bulletproof when striking a wager, my three who can’t be beat (ahem) are Little White Lie, Dickie Le Davoir and Cheap Street.

The Best of British (and Irish) To You!

Matt