Short Sunday post from me today. Its sweltering here, and beautiful. The Adriatic really is a gorgeous place. Great food, amazing scenery, fantastic weather, beautiful (but disinterested) women, and cheap beer. What more could a man ask for?

So I have to concede to being a little bored already. I’m not much of a lounger, and I really miss access to my email and connectivity generally. Sad!

The main business of this post is to advise of tomorrow’s TrainerFlatStats runners. There are none.

Have a relaxing Sunday.

Bored Matt

There are no TFS qualifiers tomorrow, Sunday. And I officially detest airports.

If its anything like the weather here where you are, its a thoroughly miserable start to the weekend.

York is already off and there may be others to follow. Definitely keep your eye out for horses that act with cut, and sires whose influence is for soft ground progeny. (Incidentally, I love Inchinor’s in the rain, though the stats don’t necessarily bear that out. Josephine Malines in the 2.30 at Salisbury tomorrow may be worth a cursory glance).

Just to tidy up the Bank Vault Report figures for the week, we ended up with 19 out of 26 (73%) losers, and all of the first horses lost, which was nice.

The link to the Bank Vault Report page again:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

(as I was writing that, The Simpsons came to mind: “That name again is Mr Plow”. If you haven’t seen this one, google it. It could be the best episode ever, in the face of fierce competition!)

To other business, and due to my limited access to internet next week, and email especially, I will be posting the TrainFlatStats runners here on the blog, from Monday to Saturday.

I will also send the occasional other post, though be warned that they may not necessarily be racing related, as I will be sunning myself wantonly on a 50ft yacht in the Adriatic…

At Sandown today, it looks a tough card, but one that must go well in the Scurry Stakes at 3.35 is Hoh Mike. He likes soggy turf and has the measure of most of these. The Irish raider is feared, but will have to step up. On form in the book, Mike should win and 2/1 (betfair) looks reasonable. I’ve had a little nibble.

Finally, a quick (and belated) mention for connections of Bavarica, who won the amateur riders’ race on Thursday at Newbury.

Regular readers will recall my distaste of betting on anything other than professional horsemanship. And so it was this day - no wager.

Bavarica however was winning for dear old Julia Feilden, trainer of Rapid City (in whom I own a bit) and Spirit of Sharjah (primed for a nice run at Royal Ascot this week).

More than that, the horse is owned by the Hoofbeats Racing Club, Julia’s own club.

And yet more than that, Bavarica was the first winner for Mr R Birkett (7). Mr R Birkett (7) is Ross, and he just happens to be Julia’s son. I was talking to him at Kempton the other week and he was telling me how much he wanted to get the monkey off his back. Well, you’ve done that now Ross. Well done boy!

Good weekend to all, and take care punting - its going to be a soggy minefield out there!

Matt

So now we’ve reached the end of the week, it’s time to review the Bank Vault Report, the system that has been generating the lays posted on this blog since Monday.

The system works by looking for favourites that adhere to a clear set of criteria which, for obvious reasons, I can’t share here.

The idea is to find five of these ‘dodgy’ favourites and lay them in turn until you get your target profit for the day. Essentially, ‘stop at a loser’.

Now, before you start, you should use the supplied calculator software, to establish your maximum liability for the day. It’s important that if you are not comfortable with the final figure (if all five horses lost), that you lower your target profit for the day, or perhaps wait for tomorrow.

The selections are then taken in sequence with the first one layed to win a certain amount of money, your target profit.

If the horse loses, and therefore you win, that’s it for the day. Go and make a cup of tea and get on with some proper work! However, if the first horse wins, and therefore you lose, we move onto Nag 2.

On Nag 2, we must lay to lose our lost cash from Nag 1 plus our daily profit target. If it loses, it’s tea time. If it wins, we move onto Nag 3 (good name for a website methinks!), and perhaps have an Irish coffee.

If Nags 3 and 4 also win (remember, the scenario here is that we have taken on four eminently opposable favourites, and they have all won: unlikely but it can happen), we are in the toilet with a whisky awaiting the outcome of Nag 5’s performance.

During our week trialling Bank Vault Report, the first horse has lost every day, which is great. A system like this, however, does really require a longer trial to prove its mettle. In the absence of a licence to do that here, I have the records of one BVR punter from last year (thanks Kev):

“I kept an accurate record of the first 29 bets.

15 lost and 14 won (came first)

of the 14 that went to the 2nd rung of the ladder, 7 lost and 7 won

of the 7 that went to the third rung, 3 lost and 4 won

of the 4 that went to the 4th rung, 3 lost and 1 won

the 1 then lost.”

So, in 29 days, there was one brown trouser day, which is probably fairly indicative.

Kev also mentioned that his greatest exposure for the ‘Day of the Pantalons Brun’ was £370 to win £15 (his daily profit target). Extrapolating that up, over 29 days, he was £435 to the good, and could have dropped back to £65 to the good had things gone the shape of an unfashionable fruit that used to be used in cider making.

So I hope I’ve sounded a clear enough note of caution here. Comments from readers (thanks Scott and Kev), which appear very fair to me, rightly identify that it will not always be sweetness and light. But if you take a medium to long term view, I’m pretty confident that the system will show a nice profit. How much depends on those ‘cast iron undergarment’ days of course.

So how has Bank Vault Report fared in the trial?

At the time of writing, and with a few more to run this evening, the scores on the doors are as follows:

Selections: 23 (up to and including 5.15 Market Rasen tonight)

Losers: 17

Lose %: 74%

Highest Liability: £27

The results this week have been excellent, and the number of horses beaten really adds weight to the strength of the system, inasmuch as every day we’ve got at least three from five beaten. This means that there have been at least three ‘take the money’ opportunities in each streak of five.

As with all systems reviewed here at Nag3, BVR comes with a full money back guarantee. If it’s not your cup of tea, no problem: though, that said, having read this and tracked it all week, you have a good idea what’s involved!

To read more about Bank Vault Report, and to secure your copy, visit:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

This guy is clearly narcotically enhanced.

Absolutely marvellous, camper than the proverbial row of rouge tents, and don’t miss the superb eyebrow moment around about 58 seconds!

Aah, the unmistakable aroma of Friday…

Well done dear reader, for you’ve nearly made it through another week of whatever toil is yours for the toiling.

And with some luvvly jubbly lays to boot, if you’ve been tracking progress with us this week. I’ll post my review this evening after (at least most of) today’s lays have run.

Speaking of which, here is today’s juice… (Please read on for an important admin bulletin)

14.00 MR JACKANOO @2.7

17.15 MR KILCANNON SUPREME @2.4

18.10 Clon COUSIN LIZZIE @2.6

18.50 Good DREAM OF FORTUNE @2.6

19.35 Chep ASHMAL @2.7

19.45 Clon SMILE LATER @2.5

Now then, due to my utter inability to plan my way out of bed in the mornings, I have managed to stow away on a mate’s boating trip on the Adriatic in Royal Ascot week. Nothing wrong with the Adriatic, indeed there’s a lot right with it. But Royal Ascot week! Buffoon!

This, you may not know, follows on from missing Royal Ascot last year, due to agreeing to meet my Estonian (ex-)girlfriend’s parents in Parnu, Estonia, in - you guessed it Royal Ascot week. Now I won’t go so far as to suggest that it was the beginning of the end for that relationship (I’ve a million faults and foibles that saw that fine young lady away, gambling being only one of them! (Beer and other women numbering among the others…)), but it cannot have helped.

Enough of my planning ineptitude… Would you believe I actually gave up a job as a Senior IT Management Consultant to do this. I got paid to plan. I’m so ashamed.

Ok, dirty planning laundry now aired - my, this is cathartic - let’s move on with the deal.

I have established (as you may have seen from last night’s test post) that I can actually blog from my mobile phone. This in itself is nothing short of miraculous. So there will be some content here next week. However, it may or may not relate to the main equine business of the week, depending on whether a) I have access to wifi / internet and b) I can get any kind of signal offshore.

To mitigate for the fact that I won’t be here next week to share my - ahem - pearls of wisdom with you, I have done a spot of research that you may find of interest.

Have a look at the free systems page, and you will find an ‘Ascot On The Turn’ system, which looks like it may be worth following.

That’s all for now, but I’ll be back later with the Bank Vault Review, plus some Friday Fun, AND a special bonus due to my absence next week. I really do spoil you!

Matt

As I'll be on holiday from saturday, i'm trying to see if there is technology that will enable me to blog from far flung places. If you end up reading this on my blog, that means you'll also be getting my 'fun in the sun' updates next week! Lucky you.

Sorry, running very late today.

Today’s lays as follows:

14.20 Yarm SIR GEORGE @2.1

14.50 Yarm DISTANT NOBLE @2.7

18.35 Font COCKATOO @2.2

19.35 Font CARTYS CROSS @2.5

19.45 Uttox BAGAN @2.7

20.35 Font CAPE STORMER @2.5

Matt

A two part post today, dear reader. In this post, we’ll review yesterday’s action before posting today’s thoughts and, of course, the Bank Vault Report selections, later.

Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.

So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday’s 2.7 favourite).

I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!

Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we’ve got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we’ve loaded up behind it, will get turned over.

Today’s selections will follow later.

As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!

Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the ‘perm high numbers’ strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!

Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.

For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.

So Beverley yesterday was a case of ‘great call, wrong race’!

Onwards and downwards… More later, including today’s Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M

A warm Wednesday welcome dear reader, for it is the middle of the week.

Yesterday, the Bank Vault Report managed to get a whopping five out of six lay selections beaten! Alas, we’re only supposed to nominate five horses, so we’ll exclude the last one and just claim four out of five.

Importantly, from a progression perspective, the first horse yesterday, La Guancha, was a loser, which means - for the second day - there was no staking increment required to cover previous losses on the day.

So after Day Two, we are showing £40 profit and a maximum liability of £27 (what we’d have lost if La Guancha had won, it being a bigger price than the previous day’s first selection).

Today’s choices are:

15.00 Brig BIRKSIDE @2.0

16.10 Nott THINKING POSITIVE @2.2

16.50 Bev TRIVIA @2.7

19.20 Kemp DOUBLE BILL @2.7

21.00 Leop WESTLAKE @2.3

On the backing front, I managed to get Amanda Carter beaten at Redcar, but my e/w shout High Five Society could only manage 5th at 20/1. Interestingly, the winner (Sir Duke) was having his first handicap run after the obligatory three maiden efforts. These types are always worth noting, as they pop up pretty frequently. The Duke was a tidy 12/1. In fairness, though, I’ve rarely seen a poorer race.

Up at Chester, and the draw continues to confound me. Trap 8 won the sprint, meaning my box one and two theory went west again.

However, I did call H Harrison’s race to the letter, with the horse sitting in behind the speed and quickening in the last furlong to win all out. 7/2 was a surprisingly fat return too.

Today there is racing at Beverley, and one of the strongest draw biases in the country will again be on parade. High numbers are paramount at this track, almost regardless of the distance of the race.

In the 2.50 Flying Bantam has a lot going for him from cage 14 (of 14), and will be tough to beat.

For a fun bet, in the 4.20 (a 5 furlong fillies’ handicap - not normally my idea of fun!), I will perm the top four stalls (14-17) in combination exactas and straight forecasts (half stake on each). That’s Minimum Fuss (16/1), Violet’s Pride (16/1), Muara (6/1) and Princess Cleo (7/1).

Will be nice if it comes off! Small stakes fun wager only though, for sure.

That’s all for now.
Matt

Good morning to you, dear reader, and welcome to Day 2 of the Bank Vault Report review.

If you remember from yesterday, we are aiming to win a target £20 per day, using a progressive staking system with horses that are selected by the secret method in the Bank Vault Report.

Yesterday, the first horse lost, which means that we won our £20 with a maximum liability of £23 (the horse, Toi Express, was quoted at 2.3 - the price available at 8 am yesterday - and we’ll use the prices quoted in the example for the purposes of the review).

Incidentally, an interesting point to track is how many of the selections get beaten. Although of course we only need one to lose to make our money on the day, it is heartening to see more horses beaten as this gives me more confidence that the role of luck will be only peripheral in the selection process.

Today’s selections are as follows:

15.00 Redc LA GUARDIA @2.7

15.55 Sals CAPE VELVET @2.5

15.45 Sals APPLEBY @2.4

16.00 Redc HENRY BERNSTEIN @2.7

18.45 Chest BRASSINI @2.6

21.00 Worc CORNELIUS @2.2

From a backing perspective, again my desire to get the short priced ones beaten has surfaced, and I’m looking to oppose Amanda Carter in the 5.30 at Redcar. She’s odds on in a handicap and, although she won well enough last time, there is always value in opposing odds on in handicaps, even if just trying to find a placed horse for an each way tickle.

So let’s go each way tickling… it is fair to say that this is a poor race, so small stakes only. But I like the profile of High Five Society. Bred for this kind of trip, and having been contesting slightly better races recently, Paul Eddery’s mount might be the type to hit the board at around 16/1. Disappointly for punters here, there are only 15 runners, so no fourth place payout.

Elsewhere, and they race at Chester tonight. Everyone knows about the low draw bias on the Roodeye in sprints, and yet there’s still value to be had there. Let’s side with the nags berthed one and two, Kings College Boy and Foxy Music respectively.

In the 7.45, over seven furlongs, H Harrison looks to have a great chance. He’s likely to be held up just behind what should be a strong gallop and, if the slowing traffic ahead can be negotiated, he may very well win again. 11/4 to looks pretty fair value to me.

Good luck today, more from me tomorrow.
Matt

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to Monday’s bulletin. As promised, and slightly later than planned, this week we’re going to be tracking a system called the Bank Vault Report.

I’ve had hold of it for a week or so now, and it looks interesting. But of course the proof of the pudding is always in the eating (or, in our case, the punting).

So what is the Bank Vault Report all about? Well, the first thing to say is that it is a laying system, i.e. (as I’m sure you know by now), finding horses to get beaten.

The nature of the system is that it is progressive, and therefore not necessarily to everyone’s tastes. By ‘progressive’, I mean that each day we will identify five horses to lay, and we will quit when we’ve layed a loser.

In practice, this might work like so:

Horse A has odds of 2.0 (i.e. evens)
Horse B has odds of 2.5 (6/4)
Horse C has odds of 2.2 (6/5)
Horse D has odds of 1.8 (4/5)
Horse E has odds of 2.0 (evens)

Before we start, we must do two things:

1) Decide how much we are aiming to win, and
2) Calculate what our total liability would be if we were to be unsuccessful with all five horses. Note, its extremely unlikely that all five horses will win (and therefore we lose), but it can happen, and we need to plan for this upfront, and be comfortable with it.

Ok, so let’s say we want to win £10. We would lay the first horse for £10 at 2.0. If it loses, job done for the day, as we have our required tenner, and we move on to tomorrow. (I’ve ignored exchange commissions in this example, which may eat up to 50p from that £10 return).

But if Horse A wins, we then move to horse B, where we are now trying to win £20 (i.e. our £10 daily target, plus the £10 losing stake in the first race). Thus, in this example, we would be staking £30 on Horse B losing. Again, if Horse B loses, that’s it for the day. We’ve made our money and we stop.

So it goes on through up to five horses. In this example, in the extremely unlikely event that all five horses won, we would have a total liability of £386.

Clearly, then, it is very important to know what that number is prior to starting, so if you’re not comfortable with it, you aim to win a smaller amount of money until the bank starts growing.

You don’t need to worry about doing the maths, as the Bank Vault Report comes with a handy bit of software called the lay calculator, which does the sums for you. (Beware though, it doesn’t seem to like my Windows Vista machine. But then, nor does most of the rest of my previously perfectly compatible software! Vista stinks! Big time!)

The Bank Vault Report system makes a couple of very important stipulations about the horses which you should be looking to oppose. Of course, I can’t divulge these, as that is the nub of the system.

However, I can say that these ‘hidden keys’ are very logical and effective.

So, enough of the preamble. Today’s lay selections are as follows (remember we will stop when we’ve made our target profit):

14.30 NA TOI EXPRESS @2.3

16.30 NA KEEP IT SECRET @2.7

19.15 Pont ALAMBIC @2.4

20.15 Pont EXPENSIVE @2.5

20.55 Rosc BIG SYD @2.7

Throughout the week (until Friday), I’ll keep track of where we are, what our biggest liability was, and so on, for a notional target profit of £20 per day.

If you want to know a little more about the Bank Vault Report, and just can’t wait until Friday, you can have a sneak peek here:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

That’s all for now.
Matt

After five losing lays, yesterday the spell was broken in no uncertain fashion by Munsef, a horse who I was quite unkind about.

In fairness, his overall record is patchy at best. But yesterday he was way too good for his opposition.

Today though we will try again, and I actually fancy two to get rolled over.

The first runs at Bath in the first race, and is called Midnight Fling. Roger Charlton, the filly’s trainer, is a brilliant handler, but is currently 0 from 3 with his 2yo’s, and this one - who was his first juvenile runner on debut - is almost certainly not one of the yard’s leading players.

Allied to that, and the main reason I’m happy to oppose her is that she is drawn in stall 14. Sprint races favour the rails runner strongly, and she will have to travel at least five or six lengths further than those berthed in boxes one to five.

Both Aide Memoire and Star in the East have advantageous draws, and I’d be surprised if something didn’t get the better of Midnight Fling.

For my second lay, I will go North to Perth (the northernmost racecourse in UK no less), and I will take on a pair of racing personalities who I cannot abide.

Nicky Richards seems to me to be an arrogant man, and not a shadow of his illustrious father, in terms of either ability or comportment. And quite why Rose Davidson still gets to ride his better horses is a frustration to me from a betting perspective (she cost TrainerTrackStats followers plenty last season).

So I’m happy to lay Middleton Dene on those personal aspects alone. Add in the fact that that the horse has never won outside of a low grade bumper, and takes on a dual winner and a couple of other potential improvers, and I will take my chances.

From tomorrow, we’ll be tracking the performance of the Bank Vault Report in these messages, so there’ll be less of my personal lay opinions on these pages.

I’ll also bring you a lucrative little flat racing system at some stage during the week, so look out for that too.

For now though, enjoy your Sunday, and may it be restful and, if you’re having a bet, profitable.

Matt

Yesterday’s even money loser brought the week to five from five on the losers front, and I’m starting to receive fan mail! (I’m certain that won’t last!!)

More interesting is that people are writing to me telling me about how they’re loving Racing Secrets [Exposed]. Comments such as, “Another 4 losers today (3 unplaced Mr. Aviator 2nd by 3/4 l). All between 6.2 & 7.2 but it was obvious they were going to lose, like a Championship team taking on 3 Premiership teams.”

In my final plug for this excellent product, I highly recommend you check it out here:

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p

Lots of racing today, but very little class.

I think the theme of the afternoon is summed up by the 2.50 at Goodwood. A ten grand race between just four professional losers. If ever a Saturday epitomised the calm before the storm that is Royal Ascot, this is it.

I’ll take on Munsef in this race, not because he is the poorest horse in the race, nor because he can’t win. Just because he is a dog. Granted, he’s running against three other dogs, and may outbark them. But at 9/10 on betfair, this is a low risk lay, and one where I’m prepared to be wrong at the odds. Let’s put it this way: I wouldn’t have Munsef as a placepot banker with your money…

Also, given that yesterday’s evens loser makes it five from five for the week, and the bank is growing, I’m getting greedy!

I don’t really fancy much today on the backing front, and instead I shall be barbecuing in Bournemouth, with my good mate Dan, who will be 35 tomorrow. Happy Birthday, you old ba5tard! (He’s actually younger than me, but we won’t let that get in the way of some good old fashioned age-related banter!)

If you do want one to follow, then Ordnance Row ran an excellent race when third from an impossible draw at Epsom last Friday. He also raced the next day, and was outpointed (possibly knackered?) in the Group 3 won by Blythe Knight.

He should run very well at around 5/1 with betfair.

Good luck with your weekend wagering. No promise of a post tomorrow, as I may not have access to an internet connection. But if I can bring you a lay selection, I will.

Pip Pip!
Matt

This is reasonably amusing, and is especially for Jeremy. You know who you are…!