After the emotion of HRH Cecil (I know it should be HRA, but for one day only I’m elevating him to royal status) in the Oaks yesterday, its time for the more earthly colts’ contest.

The card is highly competitive, as you’d expect, and it kicks off with a ten furlong handicap, contested by fourteen runners.

An interesting point from the first day is that of the five races run over ten furlongs or less, the winners were drawn: 6, 4, 1, 2, 1

So I’ll be looking for low drawn horses on a track that traditionally favours this anyway.

In the 2.00, most of the key protagonists in the market are poorly drawn, which leaves us with just the Hannon pair, Duke of Tuscany and Fever, who bookend the weights.

The Duke, who is topweight and a habitual front runner, will have to be exceptionally tough to lug the weight from pole position, but may just do that. He’s progressive and only has 3/4 of a length to find with Zaham from their running last time out.

At the foot of the weights, Fever is also progressive, and is on the hat-trick tomorrow, having won at Nottingham and Windsor over this trip, albeit in significantly lower grade. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if he proved equal to the upgrade.

The second race is the Woodcote, a six furlong dash for two year olds. Again, the draw is key. Mister Hardy is unbeaten in two starts to date, is well drawn and - as a son of Kyllachy - will have no problems with conditions underfoot. He’ll take some beating, but there are plenty of unexposed types here, and Bespoke Boy may just improve past him. A winner on his debut (the field strung out like something that’s been exceptionally well strung out… erm..), he has plenty of scope and is a sporting suggestion in an open contest.

Incidentally, there are four sons of Acclamation doing battle in the Woodcote, which may constitute some sort fo record.

A disappointing field of five for the Diomed Stakes (numerically at least), and Frankie will be odds on to double up on Godolphin’s Blue Ksar. But he’s no value to me. The horse looks to have been well placed to win three on the bounce, and has never won a Group race before. The prolific Welsh Emperor, on the other hand, has two Listed races, a Group Three and a Group Two to his name and, though arguably a little long in the tooth at eight years, he looks a much more appealing proposition.

If Ordnance Row takes his chance in the race after finishing third from an impossible draw today, he might follow the selection home.

At 3.30, we will be asked to find the winner of a nineteen runner sprint handicap, known as the Vodafone Dash. This is the fastest five furlongs in the country, and I think I may have heard somewhere, the fastest in the world.

Many of the usual suspects line up, and - to be honest - I don’t have the faintest clue which one will win. High numbers can be favoured here, so I’ll attempt to use that to inform my (uninformed) choice…

Green Manalishi has the most weight and the highest draw, the former implying he’s the best horse here.Just behind him in the weights is Bond City, a course and distance winner on good to soft for tomorrow’s pilot, Frankie Dettori. He’s drawn better than ok in 13, and we know he goes on the track and the ground. He’s in decent form, if a slightly disappointing run at York last time can be forgiven.

I’ll side with these against the field, but you pays your money and takes your choice here.

Before I give you my thoughts on the Derby, a quick word about the ‘new and improved’ Nag3 site. I’ve now got it pretty much up and running, and am interesting in your thoughts. I aim to make the site one of the best free horseracing resources on the net in due course, and your feedback is vital in that. Otherwise, you’ll just get what I think you want..!

Have a look at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk and please use the contact option to pass me your thoughts.

You’ll find free systems (all researched, not just gut feel or old wives’ tales), articles, a search facility so you can look for a particular subject in my blog archives, and of course some premium systems, which are performing well at the moment. I managed to lay Lady Sandicliffe (at odds on) and a couple of others at short prices today, and get them all beaten, using the Racing Secrets [Exposed] formula. The other system on those pages, TrainerFlatStats has had its last five qualifiers finish first or second, including a nice winner today at 4/1 (only runner).

You can find more info on all of the above by sniffing around the site. Enjoy!

Now back to the Derby…

Aidan O’Brien is going scattergun with no fewer than eight entrants. All are regally bred, but I think all are running more in hope than expectation of beating the likely odds on favourite, Authorized. Although the form shown to date by Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt appears to be the best, I reckon that the Irish raiders may just get their wish.

There are doubts in my mind about the merit of the form of his four length defeat of Raincoat. The only horse with good form in behind was Adagio, and he shaped like a blatant non-stayer, so I’m not convinced that we learnt anything more than he’s still alive that day. Indeed, Passage of Time showed in the Oaks that the favourites here have very different challenges to face than in their prep races.

Contrarily, a number of the Irish raiders have been battle hardened in top races.

One of these is Eagle Mountain, who finished fifth in the 2000 Guineas. There is a doubt about his stamina, as there is about many of this field, but if he stays he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame.

One who is almost certain to stay is the son of Kingmambo, Archipenko. He won the major Irish trial, the Derrinstown Stud Trial Stakes, a race won previously by High Chapparal, Galileo and Sinndar. I’m not suggesting that Archipenko is as good as those illustrious previous winners, but he’s clearly good and maybe very good. He looks the best each way option, and is strongly fancied to reach the frame.

Of the English trial winners, Admiralofthefleet, Soldier of Fortune, and Aqaleen beat little between them and I’d be surprised and a little disappointed if any of this trio was good enough to lift the Blue Riband.

One at a price who is very unexposed and bred to stay is Mahler. Another of the O’Brien Octet, he looks a touch of each way tickle value at 40/1.

Another race over the same trip follows, this time a handicap and there is one at the bottom of the weights who looks an absolute standout. Leslingtaylor was progressive last season on the flat and, since then, has added a big handicap hurdle to his name (the Swinton). He won’t want for fitness, comes from a savvy yard, and I reckon has a great chance of winning this en route to (slightly) better things.

Cape Secret may give him most to worry about.

If you’re not p155ed or potless by this point, there is another impenetrable sprint handicap to finish with. David Nicholls has won the race four out of the last five years, and five of the last ten, and he runs a quartet this time.

The best drawn of his is Indian Trail, but he’s done all his winning on good ground or faster. He also has three duck eggs next to his name this season. Nicholls’ other three are all drawn in the car park and it will be a shock if one can win.

I’m an occasional fan of going on the Beaver Patrol (can I say that?! Its my blog, I can say what I like!), and last year’s winner has struck lucky with the same trap five that he won from then. Coincidentally, he also wears the orange jacket of all good trap five hounds, and I expect him to make a bold bid to double up. The last five winners of the race were drawn 7, 2, 1, 3, 5, and the Beaver should not be inconvenienced by the ground (won mostly on good to firm, but also on good to soft).

For m
y final shocking pun in this installment, I take the Beaver to snatch victory…

Good luck to all.
Matt

Friday fun time again, and I’m celebrating after Our ‘Enry did the business in the Oaks today to record… wait for it… his TWENTY-FOURTH Classic winner. The man is absolute class, and was typically gracious in victory, handing credit to everyone except himself.

I might start a peerage for Sir Henry campaign - what do you think…?

Anyway, a bit of Friday fun for you, once again from the archives of youtube.com. You may have seen this, as its received an awful lot of press coverage. They have a combined age of over 3,000! I think this fantastic and I hope you like it too…

Derby preview later…

Matt

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to Epsom Friday. At the end of a short working week, what could possibly be better than taking Friday off and sloping down to the Downs for some filly watching? (I know, I know, having the whole week off could be better, but for the wicked - as you’re already aware - there is no rest!).

The good news is that the fillies will come fick and fast (apologies for blatant alliteration there) today as, not only is the Oaks the pinnacle of Classic-age lady races, but there is also a mile Group 3 event restricted to the fairer sex to start the card.

As if all that was not girlie action enough, for those prefer their females in biped form, it’s also Ladies’ Day today at the Surrey track. (Expect waaaaay too much focus on the girls, and not nearly enough on the top draw equine action if you’re watching on TV today).

Enough of the opening bluster, and onto the races:

I have to say that I have some reservations about the ground, which may render a number of these selections obsolete. Although gauging ground conditions is rarely a science, the forecast rain has yet to arrive at Epsom, and the track is one of the better draining courses in the country. So, I think its going to be important to review the times of the first two contests before being confident on the actual going.

The official going is currently soft, but I suspect it will not be that yielding underfoot. Having been at Sandown last night, where the going was reported as good to soft, but the race times were quick, despite the horses traversing the track in the home straight and therefore travelling extra distance (apparently in search of better ground).

So… if the time of the opening two races is quicker than around 12.8 seconds a furlong (that’s 1min 48.8 secs for both, as they are both over a mile and half a furlong), then its good ground or better. Markedly slower (i.e. 1:50.5 or slower) and it is genuinely soft. In between, its about good.

Its an inexact science, but it will help to gauge the ground. (Also check the previous winning form of the placed horses in the first two for an extra pointer).

The opener at 1.40 is tricky, with ten fillies and mares going to post. Regular readers will know that I find women to be unpredictable at the best of times, and especially when they have four legs and eat hay (as so many of mine seem to!). I very rarely take a short price on a filly, and will not be doing so in this race. So, while Nannina has the best form, she has yet to race this season (and indeed for eight months), and she may not act on soft turf, if that’s what it turns out to be.

Echelon is interesting and her trainer knows more than most about improving older horses, and is the most likely winner. However, I will take an each way chance on a horse who ran well in the 1000 Guineas and gets the weight for age allowances in this relatively early season race.

The horse in question is Puggy and, for small stakes, she may reward each way ticklers.

Next up is a handicap over the same trip, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this lower class race is run in a faster time than the opener. I am a big fan of following sires who have an influence for producing soft ground horses and Montjeu is the most obvious of these. So his able, though not brilliant, son Montpellier must be of interest in this race.

Although his overall race record is patchy, he has won on good to soft and won last time out. His trainer reckons he’s a bit of a dodge and, personally, I quite admire quirky animals (for obvious reasons, i.e. I am one!) He clearly has the talent, but whether he deigns to use it is another kettle of kippers entirely.

So I’ll take another in the race, just in case. I also love Inchinor’s in soft ground races, and almost put up Red River Rebel against the lay Medieval Maiden the other day (won at 25/1!).

Tucker’s been off for a while but will act on the ground, is fairly handicapped, and comes from the very shrewd stable of the ‘choirboy’ Walter Swinburn.

In the 2.45, although the human version is pretty slow, I reckon the equine John Terry has a great chance. Will act on whatever ground conditions are prevalent (his only win coming on soft), and he is pretty unexposed compared to others here. Has an able trainer, and with the benefit of a debut run this season under his belt, he’ll not want for fitness.

At the bottom of the card is a very interesting horse called Red Lancer. He’s finished fifth and sixth in this race in the past two years and has been plummeting down the handicap. Formerly very smart (he won the Chester Vase three years ago), he is clearly in regression now, but his handler - one Dandy Nicholls - loves to win here and this old boy may work your larynx if you invest in him.

The Coronation Cup is a belter: the best race on the card by far. Seven horses who between them have won eight Group 3’s, six Group 2’s, and five Group 1’s. A classy renewal indeed! My selection here is ground dependant, I’m afraid. I am a huge fan of Sixties Icon, and think he will win if the going is good or quicker. However, if its genuinely dead, I reckon the O’Brien pair, Septimus and Scorpion will find the mark.

Although Sixties Icon has won a St Leger (over a mile and three quarters), I just feel that Scorpion’s stamina will be tough to crack. He’s also a former St Leger winner, and on heavy ground to boot.

Septimus is a classy animal and will give both a run for their oats. The one I don’t like today, which probably means he’s going to win, is last year’s Derby winner, Sir Percy. I’m not sure that was the best of Derbys and he’s consistently fallen a little short in top races since. I’m happy to pass him over today.

Next up is the Oaks, and I dearly dearly dearly hope the main man completes his renaissance by bagging the winner, and maybe the second as well, in today’s ‘Totty Classic’.

I am of course referring to the incomparable ‘Sir’ Henry Cecil (I need to be allowed to remove the apostrophes soon, Your Maj!!!).

The man is a genius - no other word for it. Different gravy is another appropriate nomenclature for HRAC.

Quite simply, Passage of Time has by far the best form. If she’s fit enough (she’s had a persistent throat abscess all season), she’ll win. Not by far though, as she seems to doss in front, giving the impression that she’s all out. Make no mistake, this young lady is the real deal. I hope and expect her to win. She is a rare case when I’d invest in a short price priced filly, if I didn’t already have so much emotional investment in the success of Sir Henry.

The race for places is wide open, though one I’d oppose is Dalvina. The form of the race she won at Newmarket last time has taken more blows than Hugh Grant did from Divine Brown (allegedly).

I’d love Light Shift to make it a 1-2 for the indomitable Mr Cecil, and that may well happen. She’s progressive and has done nothing wrong in two starts to date this term, though of course this is a different examination entirely.

As we’ve mentioned in these pages before, John Oxx rarely comes over from Ireland for the craic (its better where he lives generally speaking). So his Four Sins, a daughter of dual-Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Sinndar for the same connections, will be expected to run with merit. Oxx does have reservations about the ground and its even possible that if its genuinely sodden out there, he’ll withdraw her. If she takes her chance however, she’ll make them go.

There are plenty of other unexposed types, but they all need to improve by a stone and more to beat Passage Of Time.

A couple of ridiculous rags who may run better than their odds suggest are Darrfonah and Sues Surprise. Both are bred to stay (where many are doubtful stayers), and both will act on any ground. Don’t be surprised if one of these two finishes in the frame.

Its downh
ill after that, with nothing much to catch this punter’s eye (or wallet). In a very trappy contest at 4.50 I’ll take the two outsiders each way against the field. That’s Heroes and Whazzis. But I take neither with any great conviction.

Finally, when the beer / champagne should have kicked in and made every man and woman (but hopefully not the children) bulletproof when striking a wager, my three who can’t be beat (ahem) are Little White Lie, Dickie Le Davoir and Cheap Street.

The Best of British (and Irish) To You!

Matt