Blimey, is it really Wednesday already?
The sun has popped out for a brief appearance in my leafy corner of Hackney, and my mind has been transported away to the another far flung corner of London, Earlsfield. For those that don’t know, this is the nearest town to where the Wimbledon tennis takes place, and it’s taking place now. (I’m sure you knew the latter point if not the former!)
Now I must precede the following paragraphs with a disclaimer: I know next to nothing about tennis. However, I have had some fun in the past by trying to find a decent priced one to go far in the tournament (ideally to the final, as you can bet on that).
Notable successes were Sebastien Grosjean and Cedric Pioline at big prices.
This year, I think there is a slightly shorter one who looks to have a decent chance of making the final.
The approach I always take is to dodge the half of the draw with the big champ in (previously Sampras, now Federer). So I’m looking at the top half.
The obvious contender is a new kid on the block, by the name of Novak Djokovic. From the emerging sporting nation of Serbia (they need to sort the racist idiots out though), this boy’s only 20, and yet he’s already ranked five in the world and seeded four here.
He buried his first round opponent in straight sets, serves like a cannon, and has the height and mobility to trouble most – if not all – players.
I’ve had a tickle at 32 on betfair to win, and a bit more at 5.8 without the Fed Express.
Ok, that’s my token tip for the tennis over. Back to the sport of kings (and princes and paupers).
Today, I’m looking to lay another one. Had a nice touch yesterday with Shaheer rolled over at 8/11, and I’m looking to follow up with a maiden filly from Sir Michael Stoute’s stable.
Safwa is her name and she runs in the 2.40 at Salisbury. She finished 5th on debut in a really slowly run time at Goodwood. They finished in a heap that day, with even the 100/1 rags beaten only around four lengths by the Stoute filly.
She will of course improve, but she needs to do so considerably to surpass the level of performance already shown by a number of her rivals here. As a daughter of Green Desert, I’m not convinced she’ll handle the ease in the ground either, and I generally find it pays to oppose fillies on their second run when they were apparently unlucky first time out.
Having made what I believe to be a compelling case, and laid her accordingly, I now fully expect her to scoot up unchallenged!
On the backing front, there are a couple of really competitive handicaps at Carlisle on what must be their richest racing day of the season.
The Carlisle Bell over 20 yards short of a mile looks fiercely competitive, and you pays your money and takes your choice. One that may go close, though not a confident selection, is Daaweitza.
A winner of two Class 3 races in his last three runs, this Class 4 race represents an apparent drop in class. I’m not sure of the veracity of that, but the horse is in form, up to the job, and should go on the ground. At 12/1 he should give us a run each way.
Following this cracking battle is another equally insoluble contest for the Cumberland Plate (sounds alright to me, as long as its got a Cumberland sausage on it, with mash, and onion gravy. Mmmm…)
Tcherina was unsuited by the small field last time, and this filly, who did us a favour at York earlier in the season, might go in again.
I’m backing her small stakes to win, along with Diamonds And Dust, and Cotton Eyed Joe.
D&D is a rare flat runner for Ferdy Murphy’s resurgent stable. Regular readers will know I’m a fan of this chap, and 20/1 and 50/1 wins at the Festival underlined and emboldened my affection (especially with the 100% inflation available on the exchange)!
He has won his last two all weather starts in lower grade, but has decent turf flat form on an easy surface further back in the book.
Joe with the cotton eyes won nicely last time, after a couple of promising efforts previously. Although he is not the easiest to win with (that was his first turf win at the 14th attempt),
he might now go on from there. Given that the win was around here on the soft side of good, albeit over a slightly longer trip, he has chances.
I expect this to be run at a fair gallop and the front runners to yield to late plodders who can hold a reasonable position mid-rank.
We’ll see, but these are my three of the tee.
Just by way of a post script, I’ve received quite a lot of comments regarding my Laying Seven post, and I’d like to add a couple of points here:
– Brian Mac has the product and is tracking it. So far, over three days, it’s performed impressively, and Brian has kindly agreed to try to follow it for a couple of weeks and let me know how it does. (No pressure Brian, if you can’t!)
– One of the comments asked how I could track performance prior to laying on the exchanges being available. The answer is that, although I couldn’t have laid them, I do have the historical data to see how they performed. I then simply apply the same criteria I apply to all lay bets, i.e. inflated SP by 16%, and a 5% deduction for commission on winning trades.
Hope this helps, and do please keep the comments coming. It sometimes feels a little one way from here, so it’s nice when posts like last evening’s strike a nerve and you guys respond. Thank you for that and, as I say, please do keep ‘em coming.
Happy Humpback Day! (as they say Down Under)