Forgive me, dear reader, for today I have fallen victim to the excesses of man, in the shape of several glasses of tar coloured ale. (I hate to think what my intestines look like, and - in the interests of many of your upcoming (hopefully not literally) dinners, I implore you not to ponder the hue of my bowel for too long either!)

So how was it for you? Day three. Small ‘t’ in three, because this is majoritively poor fair, when compared with the illustrious sport of the other three days. Nevertheless, each race presents a betting opportunity and a winning opportunity to boot.

The day started with tremendous excitement as Ferdy Murphy - what a man! - did it again, with 20/1 shot L’Antartique. Now nobody who reads my bluster can have failed to at least considered the animal for this race, as I gave him a huge shout yesterday. So well done if you backed him. I was on for small money (should, as always with a winner, have been on for more!)

The favourite, King Revo, had no right whatsoever to win. And if you backed that, I’m afraid you get a mug ticket in my book. Its just not as easy as following the money in these races.

Onwards and downwards as, alas, it was for me today.

In the second race, I had poohpoohed the possibility of dodgepot Monet’s Garden here, and he had no excuses in a well beaten fourth. In his stead, I had favoured one of the ‘up and comers’ in Racing Demon, who I nominated as a strong each way bet. Finishing only fifth, he was a little disappointing. The way he jumps, with his back arching to one side, he looks like he may have a muscle problem, but I’m not a judge of these things.

The race was won by an improver in Taranis, and I’m glad it was. If this event is to establish itself at the Festival, it needs to be for providing a springboard for intermediates on the up, rather than being a ’soft’ option for horses dodging the big races. Sorry if you backed Monet’s but he is just not my cup of tea. (Incidentally, I can’t bear his trainer, Nicky Richards, who is off the TTS list next season, and I am convinced is - lets say - ‘romantically entangled’ with the inept Rose Davidson, who he keeps putting up on horses with good chances. She couldn’t ride a finish at home on the sofa!)

My mates backed the winner here, and I got through the placepot with Our Vic. More on that sob story later…

The third race, and by a country mile the highlight of the day, was the Stayers Hurdle, now sponsored by Ladbrokes and referred to for some reason as the World Hurdle. Black Jack Ketchum was the main imponderable around a group of established and proven form animals, with a few exciting novices chucked in for added seasoning. A real spicy casserole of a race, my cash had fallen on the Man who is Mighty (that’s Mighty Man, in case you’ve been asleep the last couple of days) to finally put the BJK myth to bed.

Alas, the myth remains, as BJK - who struck the first hurdle - fell at, I think, the third. It was a heavy fall and he will have lost some confidence in the process. McCoy is having a mare of a festival, but may redeem himself tomorrow.

So it was that the more established players contested the relevant end of the race. Inglis Drever, who looked in a spot of bother at one point, picked up the bit turning in and swooped wide. From there, it was always a vain chase for the sweet travelling Blazing Bailey and the Mighty Man. Both threw down noteworthy challenges to the leader, but I was left with the impression that the winner had a little more in the tank.

The one to take from the race is the admirable Blazing Bailey who, at five years young, has many more turns to try and win a Stayers Hurdle.

Incidentally, place wagers on the second and third almost recovered my win losses on the same two horses.

Mighty Man hitting the frame, and the first three favourites notably absent from anything you might place around a picture, meant that I was also into a nice placepot position, having banked in the second and third legs to give me plenty of options in legs 4 through 6.

So it was to the fourth leg. I had had a smallish bet on Opera Mundi, but that horse was never traveling. As a fan of Nicky Henderson, I’d chucked in Mariah Rollins as a speculative, and she / he managed to squeak third.

Having notched three from the first four in the first race, and my bankers in the second and third legs, I had now got through a tricky event to move onto the fifth leg. (My pal, whose birthday it was today, backed L’Antartique, Taranis, Inglis Drever and Idole First. Now that’s what you call a birthday!)

As regular readers will know, I’m not a fan of amateur races, and I especially detest this one. Over four miles for novice chasers, jumping 27 fences, in the incapable hands of a bunch of aspirant wannabe’s who never will be. Staggeringly, the jolly old favourite, and class horse of the race, Gungadu, was put up at 11/8 in the morning.

Sensibly, his jockey, “Aye Aye” Cap’n Snowden had him out front and out of trouble from the other horses. The trouble with Gungadu though is that he is his own worst enemy and pretty much always clouts one or many of those pesky impediments called fences that litter his path to glory.

Today was no exception: he’d failed to show finesse at a number of bushes, before being ‘laissez faire’ in the extreme at the second last and taking his - and my placepot’s - chances with him.

My wagers - and fellow placepot selections - in this race were on Miko De Beauchene and Swift Thyne. You probably don’t need me to tell you that in the ‘Can’t Jump Won’t Jump: Can’t Ride Won’t Ride’ Novices’ Chase, these both hit the deck. Miko was traveling ominously well and would certainly have made the frame, bar the fall. But that comment may also apply to a number of other competitors whose contribution in this annual farce concluded with them assuming the horizontal position turfwards.

Knowing that the placepot pool was shaping up nicely, and with (very) limited other interest in the last, I was hoping that my four in the race would come a cropper.

Alas, the fickle finger of fate favours ironic fun over mercy killings. And so it was that one of my selections, Oscar Park, held the late rally of Material World to secure me my third consecutive (and most painful to date) five-out-of-six placepot day. The sugar on this pill was that I had a vast £2 on Oscar at 26 with betfair. I’d actually spread £14 evenly over seven rags in this race, a tactic I adopt when I’m bereft of clue, as was the case here.

One of my National hopes, Cloudy Bays, took a nasty fall when leading early in the race, and I hope he’s sufficiently well to take his place in the second week of April.

As ever, it was tough for punters today. I managed to clear a small profit, broadly down to the new Messiah, Ferdy Murphy, and I hope some of you had it too.

Tomorrow is outstanding as the best day of the week, in my opinion. And I have taken some fairly strong punting views. So it will certainly be a decisive day in terms of winning or losing on the week.

This will be my last post on Cheltenham, aside from a brief wrap up some time over the weekend. I’ve been drinking Guinness - tea - Guinness - tea this week to ensure I retained sufficient sobriety for these pieces. So I hope, dear reader, that you will forgive me tomorrow’s lapse into self-indulgent hedonism.

Best of luck with your choices tomorrow - mine are posted on the blog.

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

I hope your week has been as enjoyable as mine. If its been half as good, you’ll have had a great time!

Until next time, my racing friends, may your next wager need collecting.

Matt

After three days of magnificent and hugely competitive sport, the final quarter is - in my opinion - the best. There are four races that would be the highlight in a month of racing, all sharing one star-crammed card. From Triumph to County, tomorrow will be a day to savour. And, of course, to bet!

Finding winners is often easier in advance (the theory is usually simpler than the practical in my experience, but enough of my bedroom shortcomings!), so let’s get started.

First up, the traditionally insoluble Triumph Hurdle. You get a clue to how difficult this race is when a few years ago, bookies decided to pay out on fourth place! A concession from a bookie is generally an indication of the gravity of a situation. However, in the case of the Triumph, where - despite numerical weight - there are usually only a handful who could be considered the winners.

That, I am convinced, is the case this year. There is a standout form horse, and a few others unexposed enough to potentially win. Forget the rest.

The standout form horse is Lounaos (not sure how you pronounce it, so I’ll be routing for Lunar tomorrow!). She is an Irish filly and carried all before her, prior to running a respectable fourth in the Irish Champion Hurdle. She was beaten only five lengths by Champion Hurdle second Brave Inca (albeit in receipt of nineteen pounds), and that is by a mile the best form in this race.

Given that she is again in receipt of the seven pounds mares’ allowance here, she must have an outstanding chance. Mares do win this, as Snowdrop and others have proved. Is it too daft to nominate a nap of the day in the Triumph Hurdle, a race where the bookies offer four places? Well, I may have been certified gah-gah by this point anyway, so I’m putting this one up as the bet of the day.

Dangers come from the titanium-plated Katchit (I have a saver here because my heart dearly wants him to win); the Mr Ed of the race, Mountain (I’ve heard more rumours about this horse than any other but, ultimately, he’s inexperienced and doesn’t jump very well. That’s not my idea of a bet in the Triumph, despite his unquestionable class); Degas Art (who has never seen a field even a third as big as this before, and again has it to prove. He’s also relatively exposed); Duty (only other Irish contender of note, but not in the same form league as Lounaos); and Liberate (an early fancy for me, but disappointing in a slow run race behind Poquelin, who will probably also run).

For me, Lounaos is a clear selection and, granted sound passages - both across the Irish Sea, and during the race - will be VERY hard to beat.

Next up is the Brit Insurance Novices’ Hurdle, and results so far this week, as well as form in the book, point again only in one direction. The Lineman from Wichita looks to have a cracking chance in this race, and I don’t oppose him lightly. Nonetheless, I do oppose him.

The next up in the market, and underestimated due to his unheralded (except for TTS readers of course!) stable, is C L Tizzard’s Flight Leader. This horse has top class form, having been third behind Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out. Still available at 6.6 on betfair at the time of writing, I can’t see this one being longer than 9/2 on the day.

There is bound to be solid support for Wichita Lineman, and he may go off around the 6/4 mark. If that’s your idea of getting jam on your bread, good luck to you. I can’t say the horse won’t win, because he very well might. But I’ll be topping up my ante-post ticket on Flight Leader whom, I hope at the line, will be the slight leader.

Then comes the Gold Cup. A wonderful race always, this year will be no exception. The Irish had a field day last year, filling the first three places (with the French back in fourth!). This year, they look to have a weakened hand, with Beef or Salmon, Cane Brake and Forget The Past headed their assault. The first named cleans up in Ireland but has proven before he doesn’t travel well, and is a big place lay for me. In fact, he’s a dodgy jumper and - I suspect - will fail to complete (as he has done two out of four times previously here). Cane Brake has done nothing wrong in heavy ground handicaps, but that’s hardly what you need to win here, so I oppose him lightly too. Forget The Past is probably the pick of the three, and finished third last year. He ran a stinker last time, which was not his running, and I can see him sneaking the frame again this year, without being good enough to win.

Of the British horses in the race, the key for sure is Kauto Star. Despite all of the negative noises made about him, he is a mile clear on form. At less than 2/1 I’d be happy to pass him up, but if he goes 9/4 or 5/2 he becomes very interesting. If he stands up and stays, he wins. [Yes, I do understand the magnitude of those two imponderables!]

I have made no secret of backing Exotic Dancer at huge odds (average odds of 85.66 to be precise!), and will be cheering him home. He travels supremely well and generally is a sound jumper. Whether he’s good enough, we’ll learn tomorrow.

I don’t really like much else in the race, but an honourable mention for State of Play, who is clearly progressive as well, and comes from a very shrewd yard. He does however have to defy a break of nearly four months since his impressive seasonal debut, which puts me off.

After the ballyhoo of the main event, comes the tallyho of the Foxhunters. By now you will know my views on the amateur rider races. However, I actually think this race is a decent betting proposition. Of course, you still need a bit of luck in running, but there are generally only half a dozen who can win, and some of them are put up at decent prices.

The favourite, and most likely winner, is last year’s champ, Whyso Mayo. Unbeaten since his triumph last year (including in the Champion Hunter Chase at the Punchestown Festival), and available at 3/1, I reckon this is a decent bet and will be availing myself of the ‘carpet’ (that’s 3/1 to you).

Elsewhere in the lineup, plenty of fondly remembered names from yesteryear (or last year anyway), and plenty of deadwood. Scything through the extinct xylem, I’d put up the unexposed Honourable Spider as the best each way bet (available at 14/1), though his inexperience may count against him in this race. Granted a clear run, he could give the Mayo some food for thought (sorry, that’s awful).

The only other one worthy of a mention for me is Christy Beamish, who chased home Katarino in the Aintree Foxhunters’ last year, and was clear of the rest. He’s in the book at a very tasty 25/1, and when he wins, I want you all to say ‘thank you Matt’!

Those are my three, and the ones who get round will go close.

Which just leaves us with the County Hurdle. Its an impossible race, and if you need to get out here, the best of luck to you! I will be having five pounds of interest only. If I’m losing going into the race, I will just wipe my mouth and accept that there will be no redemption here.

For what its worth (very little), my thoughts on the winner are Ouninpohja has a very similar profile to last year’s winner and this year’s topweight, Desert Quest. He’s also owned, trained and ridden by last year’s team. He’ll do for me, despite reservations about his temperament. The horse has tons of class and will travel like a dream in the race.

I’d love to see Fair Along win, but won’t be backing the Arkle second. As game as he is, that race must have left its mark.

Callow Lake from the shrewd and Festival winning stable of Jessie Harrington is also respected.

That’s my lot, and I remain confident of surviving at worst and, who knows?, maybe even stealing a small profit over the four days.

I hope that, as you read this, you’re still in the game and enjoying this equine extravaganza as much as this humble scribe.

Matt