Archive for March 14th, 2007

Day Two Review: Rude Awakening

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

After the magic of day one, inevitably, came the misery of day two.

A cracking day’s sport was in prospect, and punters’ hopes were high, due to the presence of three apparently rock solid favourites in the first three races. How the bookies must love apparently rock solid favourites.

First up on day two was the novices hurdle over 2m 5f. The favourite was the alleged wonderhorse, Aran Concerto. However, rumours at the track this morning were that he had not travelled over especially well, and this was reflected in his price. He drifted out to as big as 3/1 before being returned the slain 5/2 jolly.

Yesterday, I’d given a big shout to Silverburn, who was the plunge horse in the face of opposition to the Concerto. Backed from 7/1 into half that price, he ran well but still not well enough for a place on the podium.

The finish was fought out by two horses I mentioned in the preview yesterday but - as a portent for the rest of the day - I got them the wrong way round. My ante post tickets on Tidal Bay, at odds of 24 and 34 on betfair would have given me a guaranteed winning week irrespective of subsequent events.

Charging, lunging, flying at the finish, his efforts too late to wrest the race from the brave Massini’s Maguire, with Catch Me back in third.

I could and should have backed the winner for small money, but didn’t, having given it an honourable mention in despatches yesterday, due to its form tie-ins with Wichita Lineman (surely a good thing on Friday now?)

No matter. On to the Sun Alliance chase. As I said yesterday in the preview, Cailin Alainn did not complete the course: talented but can’t jump, and Denman won as he liked. On another day, or at another festival, he would have been my ‘get stuck in’ wager of the meeting. Easy to say in hindsight of course. Except that I said that yesterday too.

A worthy winner but the 4/1 about him winning the Gold Cup is, at this stage, bordering on offensive.

So to the main event of the day. Is it just me, or is it hard to take a race seriously when its gone from being the Queen Mother Champion Chase to being the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase?! Nevertheless, they pay their good money to sponsor the race, so its only fair that I should give them a mention. I’m guessing they’re a holiday firm. I wonder if they’re related to Hoseasons, who a few years ago, used to sell us canal holidays. Erm, I’m rambling. Sorry about that.

Well Chief, my strongest fancy and - by a furlong - my biggest bet of the week, at 15/8. Big fat juicy price about an even money favourite, I thought. But of course, having shared this information with the world and his mistress, there was never even a remote possibility of collecting.

The mistake he made was preposterously novice-y for one so experienced. Indeed, WC had only ever fallen once before, and that was against the same Mister McGoldrick who barged him at the first fence and at the second when he came down.

Ever more infuriatingly, I was going to back Voy Por Ustedes to get at least some of my WC stake back, as he was the only conceivable danger (as discussed in a previous newsletter). Guess what? I didn’t. I hope that many of you did.

WC would have won this race. As clearly as that is idle irrelevant conjecture on my part, I am certain that the proximity of the tumbling Ashley Brook at the last and, even more so, the moderate River City who picked up bronze, show this form to be bunk.

Voy Por is a very good horse. But I won’t be on him at Aintree, with or without WC in the race. He lost there to Monet’s Garden last year, and I don’t think he has the speed for that track.

WC remains the best two mile chaser in Europe and, if you’re into betting horses for next year’s events (which I am not), Corals are offering 5/1 about him righting this wrong.

As I’m sure you’ll be aware, I’m talking through a hole in my pocket the size of - well the size of my pocket.
Well done to you if you found the winner, or the placed horses.

I should also mention Dempsey who, without the assistance of Makepeace, ran a stormer to finish second, having traveled like the winner turning in.

My final word on this race, and by way of catharsis for me, and for you if you backed it too is the below. I have copied the recorded bets from the Sporting Life website. There are bigger holes (in doubtless bigger trousers) than mine tonight:

£5000-£4000 £3125-£2500 £1250-£1000 £33000-£30000 (x2) £22000-£20000 £11000-£10000 (x4) £5500-£5000 (x2) £4400-£4000 (x4) £3300-£3000 (x4) £2200-£2000 (x2) £1100-£1000 (x3) £100000-£100000 £10000-£10000 (x2) £6000-£6000 £5000-£5000 (x2) £2500-£2500 £2000-£2000 (x3) £1000-£1000 (x10)

[Yes, that is an even hundred grand. Or fifty grand per fence!]

Moving on… the championship Grade 1’s over with, and back to impossible handicap fare. I must concede to not having too much interest hereafter, but I did have a small ante-post interest on Mister Hight at 16 on betfair (got the price at least!), and I also backed Powerstation for a place for a modest sum at 4.7, which returned a thread or two of the aforementioned scorched pocket.

The winner was impressive, and is trained by a GP with only three other horses. One of those other three is the phenomenally tough and consistent Overstrand, who runs in the World Hurdle tomorrow. Again, in a previous newsletter, I gave that horse ‘fun bet’ status for the stayer’s hurdling crown. Surely the Good Doctor can’t have two Festival winners at the first attempt?!

Next up, and the predicted carnage ensued in the shambolic riders, er sorry, the amateur riders handicap chase. I know I give these people a hard time, but its for a good reason.

Look, you, dear reader, and I have to work for our cash. We are then coaxed into betting on events where the outcome is not just left dangling on the whims of a thoroughbred, but also in many cases on the whims of an inbred as well! (Ok, that is too harsh, and I retract it).

The winner - curiously enough - was tipped in yesterday’s preview as one of the few horses with a decent jockey up top. No dough on in these quarters, but I did nominate it in my head to head with a racing mate (hoo hoo hoo Gavin, you’ve got a lot of ground to make up in the straight!!)

Last knockings today was the Festival Bumper. This race will throw up more winners than any other race at this year’s festival. And I’m not being smart when I say that. It does every year.

The horses in this race are considered the best ‘babies’ in their respective stables, and that is as relevant for the 66/1 rags as for the 4/1 fav Mad Fish. If you keep a notebook with horses to follow, my simple advice is to add the names of every single one in this field. They will be winning from Fakenham to Fairyhouse, and from Tipperary (to where, incidentally, it is a long way) to Taunton, and all outposts and hotbeds in between.

You heard it here first. (Unless, of course, you’ve already heard this somewhere else).

The race itself was interesting. I, like many others, felt the Irish challenge was pretty weak this season. I, like many others, now look like a bumbling idiot. Who are we to doubt the nation that has provided all bar three of the winners of this race?

As it transpired, they had not just the winner, nor even the first three home, but the first FIVE home, and seven of the first eight home. That’s just embarrassing.

So make special note of One Gulp, Fiddling Again, and the unlucky (and slightly errant) Lodge Lane. The last named incidentally was very well ridden, despite his naughty tactics, by young James White. He looks a decent jock in the making to these untutored eyes.

The winner, Cork All Star, was signing off in bumper, having now won the maximum four. Indeed, he’d given
us all a sneak preview of what he could do when winning here last time out in November.

But I couldn’t find him. And, in fairness, as darkness has now descended I still haven’t been able to find the horses I backed in the race behind him.

As the half-time whistle blows on this year’s Cheltenham, it’s been tough to be a punter to date.

Tomorrow, for me, will be a drinking day first with only the Stayers Hurdle (World Hurdle as its known these days) to win / lose me a decent sum.

I hope you have reached the dressing room needing at worst a quick patch up, ready for the second half, and at best having already scored a couple of beauties. For me, I scored a couple of scorchers on day one, but I’m smarting badly from the missed penalty kick at 3.15 today.

Until tomorrow…

Cheltenham Day Three Preview: Over The Brow…

Wednesday, March 14th, 2007

And so, dear reader, refreshed from our half-time orange and cup of tea and - as necessary - hairdryer treatment if you had a particularly poor first half, we embark on races 13 through 18.

Now I have to concede to being a traditionalist, and the third day of Cheltenham I am afraid, for me, is not a Championship Festival day of racing. Rather, its an excuse for bookies to bleed money from punters and for the racecourse to squeeze another 70,000 people into a (very large) grandstand shaped phonebox.

I will tell you now that most of my week’s punting action will have concluded by the close of the first half, and tomorrow (Thursday) will be a day of drinking and celebrating / commiserating the action from the first two days. However, though a traditionalist, I am also a confirmed gambling addict. And, as such, will be having ‘interest bets’ on the races tomorrow.

For what its worth, here’s my view:

2.00 Novices Handicap Chase - three words, three reasons not to bet. Lots of 1’s, 2’s and 3’s in the form and lots of unexposed horses. If you can forgive him bad run last time, Flintoff might be a topical winner with England about to pull on the pads for the start of the Cricket World Cup. Ladbrokes are offering 33/1, which strikes me as value in an impossible race. Prior to disappointing last time, he won two on the bounce on heavy ground. He’s a dodgy jumper who may not like the ground and might have too much weight, and yet - in this race - he’s still the one for me!

I’m going to take another one to give me an interest in the race after ‘Freddie’s’ possible early bath, and that one is King’s Advocate from the Tom Taaffe yard.He has decent form in Ireland and was a predictably staying on third last time over two miles. He wants the longer trip and shouldn’t mind the ground. In a wide open race, he could make the frame.

I always look for Ferdy Murphy in Cheltenham handicap chases (two last year, and 50/1 Joes Edge yesterday should mean you are looking for him too!), and he has L’Antartique in here off an attractive weight. This one was beaten only two lengths by Dom D’Orgeval last time and, by the time you read this (if the Sun Alliance has been run), that may look top class form. He sneaks in here off 10-11 and the 33/1 about his chance is surely too big.

2.35 A Grade 2 in name only. Lots of horses who would have been beaten in the Championship races have swerved into this affair. There are a couple of decent sticks in here who, in fairness, probably need two and a half miles rather than two or three miles.

Monet’s Garden is definitely swerving the big guns after running so brilliantly against Voy Por Ustedes in the Arkle last year, and could win this. But he’s not for me after dodging the big boys.

Our Vic probably has the best level of form in the race, and could easily win. I will definitely be having a saver on him. But for me, I’m going to look to a little each way value in the shape of the progressive Racing Demon.

Trained by triple Gold Cup-winning handler, Mrs Terry Biddlecombe (you might know her as Henrietta Knight), this beastie was impressive at Huntingdon in their big chase of the season, the Peterborough, before falling when favourite for a hot little handicap hurdle last time out.

Assuming he’s no worse for the experience, I reckon he’s a place good thing. There are a series of other intermediate type animals here, most of whom it may be unfair to crab for going for this race.

However, I like crabbing, and I will drink to Racing Demon reaching the frame and, with a bit of luck, troubling the judge for the gold medal position.

3.15 Thank Heavens for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle! A true championship race, and one full of intrigue to boot! The wheels fell off the previously invincible Black Jack Ketchum last time out, when the heavy ground was blamed for his inability to maintain the series of 1’s by his name.

I am prepared to believe that he had an off day. However, saying that, I still don’t feel that his form merits him being a 9/4 favourite for this race. He’s sure to travel like a dream, but - as you may know already - I like to know what a horse finds off the bridle. When he was asked to find last time, the tank was empty. One paced may be a harsh observation, especially when that one pace is 5th gear, but this guy doesn’t appear to have an overdrive.

So, to the contenders: shortlist for me is Blazing Bailey, Inglis Drever, Kasbah Bliss and Mighty Man. I’d throw in Asian Maze too if she runs, but suspect she’ll be having a rest tomorrow. (I know these are the next four in the betting, but that’s because they’re most likely to win!)

I am a huge fan of Blazing Bailey, who bids to reaffirm the form of the Triumph Hurdle of last year, after Detroit City’s poor run in the Champion Hurdle and Fair Along’s creditable second in the Arkle. However, huge fan as I am, it will still be a tremendous effort to beat his olders in this race. I’ve backed him already but will be taking another against the field.

Inglis Drever is game and consistent and is a previous winner of this race, but I just have a nagging doubt that he will find at least one of these too good.

From France, Kasbah Bliss represents the multiple-Stayers Hurdle winning team of Francois Doumen (remember the magnificent Baracouda?), so there will be no questions unanswered about whether this horse is good enough. Douman is bordering on genius status for me, and rarely goes home from the Festival empty-handed. Kasbah Bliss gave a stone and more to the three horses who beat him last time out, and racing on even terms here must have a big shout.

Nonetheless, I will reluctantly say ‘non’ to this one, and pitch my punting tent firmly in the Mighty Man camp. Possibly the forgotten horse of the race, he has rock solid form credentials, and the ground has definitely come right for him. He’s currently trading at around 6/1 on betfair and this represents excellent value in my opinion. So its the Man to be Mighty for Matty!

4.00 After the brief excursion into top drawer equine exertion, we revert to the pony club stuff with the Racing Post Plate (A Handicap Chase). The name says it all. THE World Hurdle. A handicap chase. I will be drunk by this point (not really, mum!) and, depending on how the previous race pans out, may get stuck into one here…

Opera Mundi is the name. At a best priced 9/2 in a 24 runner handicap chase, its not exactly banker material. But the horse looks potentially top class and gets plenty of weight concessions from some of the older, more established and more exposed runners, notably stable companion Armaturk, who has to lug 11-12 round.

There are very few unexposed horses in opposition, and it might be stablemate Nycteos who gives the selection the biggest headache. He’s had one run this year, a couple of weeks ago, and will be ready enough for this.

Good luck if you’re playing here - as I’ve referred to previously, I am not especially good at finding winners in Festival Handicaps.

4.40 Hahaha. Brace yourselves, ladies and gentlemen, for the annual carnage that is twenty overzealous amateurs trying to cajole their inexperienced steeds to jump the 27 fences, spanning over four miles, of the 137th Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase). A long title, and one littered with reasons to go to the bar / toilet / kitchen. You should get paid out if your horse gets round in this race!

No matter. To possible winners: Gungadu is clearly the best horse in the race and has the Captain on board (that’s Jamie Snowden to you, he can ride a horse) and must have the best chance. But he’s 11/8. 11/8!!! In a field of 20 knackers! If he can swerve the enveloping pandemonium, he should be made Sergeant bloody Major!

So I’ll chance my arm with a couple of rags, much more in hope than expectation.

R H Alner (a good Dorset man like myself) is a decent enough trainer of stayers, and he has Miko de Beauchene in here. He wouldn’t have the class of the ridiculously short priced favourite. But he will stay and is a much more tempting speculative wager. At 14’s with Stan James, he’s worth a tickle.

My other against the field is the massively unexposed Swift Thyne. He’s only had two runs and, as they say, could be anything. Well, not quite anything. He couldn’t be a cow for example. Or a toaster. He’s definitely a horse. And he might, just might, be able to give us a run for small money at 50/1.

One important point of order here, dear reader. This is a novices’ chase where most of the runners will fail to complete. DON’T BOTHER TO BET EACH WAY!!! Bet two horses to win, if you are tempted to bet each way.

[I am now braced for a stack of sob story emails about punters who were on the 2nd and 3rd horses at 100/1, but did them win only on my advice!]

5.20 The Get Out Stakes just doesn’t get any easier! This time we’re asked to contemplate the outcome of two dozen carefully campaigned hurdlers over three miles.

Perversely, another of my Grand National fancies runs here. The horse is Cloudy Bays, and its not unfancied. I couldn’t possibly back him for this race, but of course I hope for a big run. I’m on at over 300/1 incidentally for the Aintree biggie.

So who will win? Well, to be honest, “I’m sorry, I haven’t a clue!”.

I’m a big fan of Lennie Lungo, and he runs Monolith and previous winner Freetown. This is a race usually won by a big priced horse, and so I will reluctantly pass these two over, in favour of something with a less obvious chance.

Way way down the lists, you will find two nags called Ostfanni and Arrayou. I don’t know much about either of them, except that they will be big prices and generally run consistently. This race, unlike the last, is a race to play each way in, and I put these two up as sporting tickets against the field.

After this is concluded, we will have reached the end of the third day. Many of us will be gasping for air, and cursing the fact that the meeting now runs into a fourth day.

But, oh boy!, what a fourth day. Triumph Hurdle, Gold Cup, comedy Foxhunters, County Hurdle and lots more besides. Bring it on!